Kourosh Ziabari – The New Arab: Withdrawing from the internationally-celebrated Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, extolled by every major democratic leader in the world at the time it was signed, was not only a foreign policy blunder on behalf of the former US President Donald Trump but a catastrophic betrayal of years of painstaking efforts to resolve one of the intractable dilemmas of international relations and the instigation of a critical nuclear proliferation risk.
When the JCPOA was agreed, the EU high commissioner for foreign policy Federica Mogherini said it could “open the way to a new chapter in international relations.” Trump wreaked havoc on that opening.
But instead of filling the void ensuing that misstep by inducting a plan B for dealing with Iran, Trump embarked on escalation and it soon dawned on the international community that he was intent on shutting the door at diplomacy altogether. Although he avoided war with the Islamic Republic down to the wire, he surrounded himself by hawks whose bidding for regime change and unvarnished confrontation with Iran dragged the world into serious trouble. Rudy Giuliani, John Bolton and Brian Hook could not be the sort of advisors to steer the United States and Iran out of crisis and simplify the riddles that have been marring their relations.
As Trump’s era is now a bygone world and the policy shifts promised by his successor Joe Biden have presaged transition to normalcy in international relations, it is imperative that the two adversaries take the steps needed to mend fences, and however laggardly, and dismantle this formidable wall of mistrust built and reinforced since 1979.
The fact that diplomats from Iran and six world powers have been commuting to Vienna for several weeks now to take a stab at resurrecting the JCPOA is promising, and this would not have been possible without President Biden’s commitment to renewed diplomacy and driving home that his Middle East strategy does not smack of the idiosyncrasies of Trump.
Yet the fate of the nuclear deal remains bleak because there is still no indication that Tehran is willing to make the compromises that are foundational to the restoration of the accord, as the hardline discourse in Iran remains fixated on “no negotiations with the United States” – a tactic which does not seem to be conducive in reversing Iran’s misfortunes.
The ultra-conservatives in the Islamic Republic – who consolidated power following the June 2021 presidential election and no longer can complain about a “liberal,” “Westoxified” Rouhani messing things up – should come clean with themselves that they want to reap the benefits of the full implementation of the JCPOA. To do so is contingent upon talking to the United States directly. If they do not recognize this, every revamping of the deal will be half-baked and short-lived.
But if one tends to err on the side of optimism and anticipate a rehaul of Iran-US ties, there is a spectrum of policy options available to redeem the relations between the two countries from the current state of misanthropy and antagonism.
The options the Biden administration has at its disposal to try détente are more diverse, and its resources more extensive. The United States has scarcely been in a position of vulnerability in its dealings with Iran. It prescribes economic sanctions on Iran with zero effects in return on its own economy, while immeasurable burdens fall on Iran and its partners too.
Moreover, the contemporary history of Iran-US interactions shows that for the theocratic Middle East nation, approaching normalization voluntarily means entering uncharted waters, imbued with risks of losing face and legitimacy after years of propagating a hardwired anti-US ideology.