Kourosh Ziabari – Medium: It’s been three years since Iran and the six world powers came to an agreement to solve the longstanding controversy surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. The nuclear deal that was signed in July 2015 was what the international community was looking for for so long. It was the concrete translation of vague and abstract ideals that everybody knew what they were, but couldn’t be actualised for several reasons, mostly political intransigence.
Iran deal, according to the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, was an agreement that was supposed to be the manifestation of a zero-sum game, and even for President Obama, it was a victory.
India was one of many countries that reaped major benefits from the lifting of the United Nations and international sanctions against Iran following the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in January 2016.
Experts and journalists have talked a lot about the reasons why Iran deal was beneficial and why India was definitely one of its winners, even though it was not a signatory or negotiating partner.
Benefits and profits
It doesn’t take many graphs and charts to illustrate the benefits Iran has won from the removal of sanctions it was suffering from prior to the inking of the nuclear agreement. Similarly, not much evidence is needed to show how India has concretely and enormously benefited from the lifting of sanctions against Iran, at least by trying to monopolize the Persian Gulf nation’s oil market and taking over the lucrative contracts of Chabahar Port, which means at least for these two traditional partners, the JCPOA has been a good deal.
President Hassan Rouhani, who is sometimes criticized for being a bit lazy in traveling internationally, made a landmark trip to India in February this year to send a message that has definitely come across correctly: Tehran is committed to robust and strong relations with Delhi. Rouhani’s trip was his first visit to India and the first by an Iranian head of government in 10 years.
World Bank figures for 2016 show Iran is the 30th top export partner of India and its 13th major import partner, surpassing Belgium, Qatar and Nigeria.
These figures mean Indian products are popular in Iran, and at the same time, Indian exporters find it valuable to cooperate with Iranian firms, even though the rigidity of Iranian economy and its complexity, make it difficult for international partners to make easy decisions about working with it. Iranian products, as well as the Iranian oil, are similarly popular and well-liked in India and this mutual interest grew significantly following the lifting of anti-Iran sanctions and the taking effect of the Iran deal.
Despite being at two extremely different cultural and ideological spectrums, Iran and India have maintained very close trade and economic relations, and it was shortly after the conclusion of the landmark nuclear agreement that BBC World ran an article, discussing how the Iran deal will have significant implications for Delhi, which hoped to reinvigorate its economic and strategic engagement with Tehran quickly.
…. any unilateral action by President Trump, which will most probably not be endorsed by the UN and EU means the influx of some redundant bureaucratic complications, extra concern and apprehension in the hearts of countries such as India, China, Switzerland, Germany, Japan and Turkey who are working closely with Iran as normal trade and economic partners, and the resumption of a set of “undone”s that will be done again
Iran’s crude oil, which is renowned internationally for its quality and purity and was even once described by the Reuters to have outcompeted American crude has never been an alternative for the Indian government or private oil firms. In 2017, when Iran shipped an unprecedented 777 million barrels of crude, India was the second largest importer of Iranian oil after China, which means India considers Iranian oil a priority and with the lifting of sanctions, it didn’t see itself artificially limited to buy Iran’s oil.
Moreover, Iran was not anymore that pariah state, which could be easily vilified and singled out by the major world powers over every inauspicious and ill-starred happening in the world. The nuclear deal changed Iran’s public image as well, and India’s willingness to boost its ties with Iran were understandable and justifiable.
The worst-case scenario
U.S. President Donald Trump has called the Iran deal a one-sided and bad deal and one of the worst accords America has ever entered into. He might de-certify the deal or might withdraw from it unilaterally, given his ambitious and apocalyptical foreign policy and his patronizing relationship with the European Union countries that are happily working with Iran to ensure the JCPOA is working smoothly.
The European Union has made it clear on several occasions, most importantly in a recent statement, that Iran deal is a working agreement, will continue being in place to ensure the goals of nuclear non-proliferation are met and that Iran will enjoy good, robust and reliable relationships with the international community. After all, it’s something that the UN Security Council has thrown its weight behind.
However, any unilateral action by President Trump, which will most probably not be endorsed by the UN and EU means the influx of some redundant bureaucratic complications, extra concern and apprehension in the hearts of countries such as India, China, Switzerland, Germany, Japan and Turkey who are working closely with Iran as normal trade and economic partners, and the resumption of a set of “undone”s that will be done again: countries going through rigorous checks and balances and inspections to do trade with Iran and the international community becoming cautious in approaching Iran for talks — something that was the case under Iran’s ultraconservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who ended his tenure with a huge foreign policy mess left behind, and hundreds of unanswered questions for the Iranian people about the reasons why he insisted on sticking to his mismanagement and unworkable foreign policy. Trump’s de-certification of the Iran deal can have the same effect.
This article was originally published on Medium.